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据道琼斯8月22日消息，分析师们表示，受供水平不足影响，2013年全球液化天然气（LNG）贸易将连续第二年出现下降。
由于缺乏新的天然气出口项目以及来自于印尼、中东和非洲等主要出口国供应下降的影响，全球LNG供应滞后于需求。
伯恩斯坦研究公司分析师周四表示："去年是过去二十多年来全球LNG消费首次出现下降，今年又将延续去年的状况。"
分析师们表示，今年上半年全球LNG贸易量同比下降3.8%，下半年的增速预计较为温和。
上周，日本能源经济学会估计今年全球LNG需求将从去年的2.3631亿吨降至2.33亿吨。原因是欧洲需求下降以及天然气供应趋紧。该机构同时表示，2014年全球LNG需求将复苏，因为亚洲消费量将达到约2.5亿吨。
伯恩斯坦研究公司表示，今年前5个月来自于非洲的LNG出口量同比下降14%至1430万吨，而中东地区的出口量下降1.7%至4060万吨，中东84%的LNG向亚洲出口。
今年上半年全球LNG供应出现大幅增长的唯一地区是澳大利亚，该国新的项目继续扩大全球LNG供应。另一方面，亚洲国家继续成为进口天然气的最大市场，占据全球LNG需求增长的绝对主导地位，并弥补了欧洲市场的下降。
庞晓华摘译自道琼斯
原文如下：
Global LNG Trade Might Contract Again in 2013 - Analysts
By Eric Yep
Global liquefied natural-gas trade might contract for the second year in a row in 2013 mainly due to insufficient supply levels, analysts said.
LNG supply is lagging behind demand due to the lack of new projects for exporting gas, and falling supply from key exporters such as Indonesia, the Middle East and Africa.
"Last year was the first year in which global LNG consumption declined [in] over two decades" and this year "it looks as if history will repeat itself," analysts at Bernstein Research said in a note Thursday.
They said global LNG volumes declined by 3.8% for the first six months of this year, and growth in the second half of the year is expected to be moderate.
Last week, Japan's Institute for Energy Economics also estimated global LNG demand in 2013 to drop to 233 million tons, from 236.31 million tons in 2012.
It attributed the decline to falling European demand, in addition to tighter gas supply, and said LNG demand will recover in 2014 to around 250 million tons on Asian consumption.
Bernstein said LNG exports from Africa in the first five months of 2013 fell 14.0% from last year to 14.3 million tons, while the Middle East, which sent 84% of its LNG exports to Asia, saw exports drop by 1.7% to 40.6 million tons in the same period.
The only region with significant supply growth was Australia, where new projects continue to expand global LNG supply.
On the demand side, Asian countries continue to be the largest market for imported gas, driving absolute global LNG demand growth, and offsetting the decline in European markets.
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发表于 2013-8-24 22:59:28
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